The numbers we read about the economy stagger our imagination: 2.6 million jobs lost last year, the highest unemployment level since the end of World War II, the worst stock market performance since the Great Depression.
The real estate market, of course, is only part of the overall economy and Evergreen is a tiny part of the overall picture. The table below shows how we measured up against the national and Denver resale home markets during 2008—these are preliminary figures and may be adjusted slightly in the next month or so.
| |
US* |
Metro Denver |
Evergreen/ Conifer |
| # Sales |
-15.5% |
-2.2% |
-24.0% |
| Median $ |
-12.8% |
-10.2% |
8.0% |
| Average $ |
-12.3% |
-12.9% |
-2.7% |
| * as of 11/30/08 |
|
|
As you can see, the number of homes that sold in Evergreen/Conifer was much lower in 2008 than in 2007, significantly lower than in Denver or the US. But both our median and our average prices fared better than Denver or the US. In a weak market, fewer expensive homes tend to sell, while foreclosures make lower-priced homes a bigger part of the mix, driving prices down.
In Evergreen, the lion’s share of sold homes was in the $250,000 to $500,000 price range. More homes sold in the Hwy 285/Conifer area because the average price is more modest there. Interestingly, home sellers in the South Evergreen area had a higher success rate than in any other area. To see a complete breakdown of 2008 sales activity in Evergreen by price range and geographic area, go to www.TuppersTeam.com, click on Evergreen Information, then click on Real Estate Stats.
The real estate market usually changes at a glacial pace and no one knows where the bottom is until we’ve passed it. To get a sense of whether our local market is transitioning from a buyers’ market to a more balanced market, we need to read the tea leaves. Here are some interesting factoids.
*Colorado was among the 5 fastest-growing states between July, 2007 and July, 2008 (latest stat available) according to the US Census Bureau.
*At a time when the country is mired in the worst foreclosure crisis since the Great Depression, Denver is bucking the trend by seeing a year-over-year decline in foreclosures. Is it possible that Denver has already gone through the worst of its foreclosure cycle and that we might come out faster than the rest of the nation?
*According to a recent S&P/Case-Schiller home price index, Denver and Cleveland were the only two areas in their 20-city analysis that showed improved year-over-year returns; to be sure, both cities still posted declines, but smaller declines than the other cities.
*Relocation.com tracks which areas people move to and from. Denver was second only to Las Vegas as the top spot where people were moving to. As might be expected, the Great Lakes region suffered the worst outflow of transfers.
*Interest rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages have fallen to their lowest level since the 1970’s, which should grease the wheels of a market turnaround.
Buyers have an advantage in the current market because there are so many homes on the market, they are priced very competitively and interest rates are low. This makes homes more affordable than ever and should lead to more home sales and, eventually, price stabilization.
In the meantime, if you are a homeowner and you haven’t lost your job, remember that there is a difference between ‘price’ and ‘value’. Even though prices may have come down temporarily, the value of your home remains the same. It still shelters you, it hasn’t lost any square footage, it accommodates your needs. So unless you plan to sell the house or borrow a lot of money against it, the fluctuations in price don’t have much relevance in your daily life.
Here is an article from the New York Times 
